Predicting Memory-Based Consumer Choices from Recall and Preferences

Consumers often need to make choices when some or all of the information relevant to the decision is not physically present. To deal with this, they need to retrieve the necessary information from their own memory (Lynch, 1982), e.g. a list of brands within a category, prior experiences with a brand, and knowledge about key attributes of certain products. The processes mediating consumer recall, and their downstream effects on consumer choice, have been subject to intense study by consumer researchers. An extensive literature in consumer research strongly indicates a positive role of memory in consideration and choices. Brands that have higher awareness or accessibility are more likely to be chosen (Hoyer & Brown, 1990; Posavac, Sanbonmatsu, & Fazio, 1997). Furthermore, increasing brand accessibility or strengthening category-brand association boosts the likelihood of consideration and choice for a brand of interest (Nedungadi, 1990; Posavac, Sanbonmatsu, Cronley, & Kardes, 2001). To date, however, it remains challenging to understand and predict how effects of marketing actions on memory are translated into actual behavior. In particular, what is the nature and force of processes by which stronger brand memory leads to more choices of the brand? Could brand memory be a proxy for preference or a component of preference? Do brand memory and preference operate independently? Without such mechanistic insights, it is difficult for marketers to predict or validate consumer memory measures with actual purchase data, or to estimate the return on investment (ROI) of an advertising campaign that is projected to increase brand awareness (Rust, Lemon, & Zeithaml, 2004).