ENHANCING REGIONAL STABILITY: THE INTERSECTION OF EU AND TURKISH INTERESTS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

This paper examines the intersection of European Union (EU) and Turkish interests in the South Caucasus, focusing on regional cooperation. Turkey’s regional cooperation schemes, such as, e.g., the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) Railway, the BakuTbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) Pipeline, and the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), highlight its significant leverage as a key energy and trade connector between the South Caucasus and the West. Despite the strained and complex nature of EU-Turkey relations, this paper argues that Turkey's proactive role in regional cooperation can indirectly enhance EU efforts and counterbalance Russian influence. The study employs a mixed-method approach, including case study analysis and process tracing. Case studies will examine successful cooperation projects (bilateral, trilateral, multilateral) initiated, developed, or facilitated by Turkey for the sake of regional cooperation to understand their impact on regional stability and integration, while process tracing will identify key events in Turkey's and the EU's foreign policies to illustrate the evolution and influence of these initiatives. The methodology will focus on how regional cooperation interests might align despite differing political contexts. The theoretical framework for this study is based on Neoliberal Institutionalism, which posits that international cooperation can be achieved through institutions and mutual benefits, even among states with divergent interests. This framework will help analyze how Turkish regional initiatives can serve as a multiplier effect for EU efforts, enhancing cooperation and stability in the South Caucasus. Findings will provide insights into how Turkey can indirectly act as a strategic partner for the EU, enhancing regional stability and supporting the Europeanization process in Azerbaijan, Georgia, and potentially Armenia. When a peace deal is finalized between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Turkey is expected to open its border with Armenia, potentially ushering in a new era of regional initiatives and cooperation, something that seemed out of reach for decades. In this context, Turkey's strategic position and its NATO membership, along with its brotherly relations with Azerbaijan and strategic partnership with Georgia, can be instrumental for the EU. In conclusion, the research underscores Turkey's potential to synergize indirectly with EU efforts, providing a balance against Russian influence and contributing to regional stability and integration in the South Caucasus. The successful realization of major regional and international projects demonstrates that mutually beneficial goals can deliver impressive results, attracting significant international investment and further integrating the region into global economic and energy networks. This study offers a nuanced understanding of how Turkey's efforts, driven by its geopolitical interests and regional cooperation initiatives, can complement the EU's objectives, promoting stability, development, and mutual understanding in the South Caucasus.